The Real Winners of 2013: Tech IPOs from 2012

This morning I posted an article on Fortune.com entitled “The Real Winners of 2013: Tech IPOs from 2012.” Ted Tobiason (@TedTobiasonDB) and the team from Deutsche Bank helped us pull together some astonishing stats about the IPO Class of 2012, starting with the fact that the average tech IPO from 2012 is up 170%. You can read the article at Fortune.com or below. 

The year 2013 was a banner year for venture-backed technology IPOs. According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), 82 VC-backed companies raised $11.25 billion in IPOs in 2013, the most VC-backed IPOs since 2007. Public market investors showed strong interest in many of these offerings at IPO as well as afterward – the average IPO from this class had traded up 64% through the end of the year (and 15 were up more than 100%).

Fig 1 IPO Trend

Impressive numbers for the Class of 2013 by any measure. It is worth noting that 2013’s numbers were significantly up from 2012 in both number and dollar volume if Facebook (which accounted for $16 billion of 2012’s total of $21.5 billion) is excluded from the 2012 numbers (as shown in the chart above).

From the vantage point of venture capitalists, founders and employees of these tech companies, however, the most important measure of a company’s IPO is how the stock is performing a year or two down the road. The reason for this is simple – most VC’s and employees aren’t selling at the IPO. The standard lockup (a window in time where insiders cannot sell shares) is typically 6 months, and many insiders and employees will wait (or vest) and sell down their positions over time. Performance beyond the first year is also critical for the health of the overall IPO market, as public market investors who bought into high performing IPOs are often inclined to support additional offerings over time (in other words, the Class of 2012 is an important leading indicator for 2014 and beyond).

So for technology investors (and the pension plans, endowments and individuals that invest with them) and employees, the important question to ask is “How is the IPO Class of 2012 doing?”

The short answer – unbelievably well. To the tune of over $100 billion of market capitalization increase since IPO. To look deeper, I reached out to Ted Tobiason, Managing Director at Deutsche Bank, whose team helped craft the following data points (all data as of 1/2/2014):

–          The average tech IPO from 2012 is up an astonishing 170% from its offering price

–          18 of 42 tech IPOs from 2012 are up over 100% from their offering price, while just 9 trade below their offer price and 4 have been acquired (Acquity, Eloqua, ExactTarget and Kayak)

–          The IPO Class of 2012 has added more than $111 billion of market capitalization since IPO ($57 billion by Facebook, $54 billion by all other IPOs combined)

–          Here are the top 10 performers from the IPO Class of 2012, ranked by percentage increase from the IPO offering price to January 2nd, 2014 (market close last week):

Fig 2 IPO Top 10 Class of 2012

(Note that this data reflects an analysis for 42 of the 49 IPOs from 2012, as the NVCA data also includes biotech IPOs, while our analysis does not.)

While IPOs from high-profile companies like Facebook get the bulk of media attention, an astonishing amount of value has been created broadly by the IPO Class of 2012 over the past two years. In fact, more value has been created by these companies since IPO than was created prior to IPO: the $54 billion referenced above is up from a starting point (at IPO) of $33 billion.

So – what conclusions can we take away from these data points? To be fair, they have to be taken in the context of an overall bull market which saw the NASDAQ Composite rise 56% and the Dow 34% from the beginning of 2012 to the end of 2013. Nonetheless:

1)      Public market investors are clearly showing a massive appetite for new offerings and the growth rates that typically come with them; the average IPO from 2012 and 2013 was growing at 44% in the calendar year of its IPO

2)      The Class of 2012 performance is not just driven by a few outliers; though the top 10 drive up the average (mean) performance considerably (to 170%), the median for the Class is an impressive 84%

3)      Pricing at the time of IPO is often considered an indicator of the “hotness” of an IPO, but may not be a great indicator of future performance; all 5 of the top performers from the Class of 2012 priced below the midpoint of their IPO filing range

It will be interesting to see how the Class of 2013 fares in 2014, when lockups expire and early shareholders and employees can begin to sell their holdings.

They’ve got big shoes to fill – the Class of 2012 has knocked it out of the park.

Disclosure: GGV Capital is an investor in YY. Related to this topic: why certain companies do well post-IPO; for more, see my Partner Glenn Solomon’s post “How LinkedIn Became a Wall Street Juggernaut.”

The IPO is Back (v2)

The engine continues to hum.  I wrote back in early January that the “IPO is Back, So Is M&A.” New Q1 2011 data from NVCA reinforces this point, as covered by GigaOM this morning.  14 venture-backed companies completed IPOs in Q1, with 11 trading up from their offering price. Another 49 venture-backed companies are on file.

IPOs are happening because, for the most part, the companies offering their shares in 2010 have beat or hit their forecasted numbers.  As a result, share prices have tended to increase or at least hold their gains.  This makes the investors who buy new offerings happy (they get paid to make money for their investors).  The average tech IPO traded up 42% from its offer in 2010. For those who want more detail on the performance of 2010 IPOs, Pacific Crest Securities has a nice recap available via this link.

The IPO is Back. So is M&A.

The NVCA has new data out about Q4 and full year 2010 IPO and M&A data for venture backed companies.  Good news for entrepreneurs and VC’s – the IPO is back (which, in turn, helps create a healthy M&A market).  A few highlights:

– Q4 IPO volume – driven largely by Chinese IPO’s – was at its highest level since 2000 (32 total, 17 from China backed by US firms)

– Full year venture-backed IPO volume was at its highest level since 2004, with 72 total

– There were more than 400 venture-backed M&A exits – the highest level since 1985

A positive M&A market for entrepreneurs and VC’s is directly related to a positive IPO market.  When great companies can stick to their plan and raise public capital, it forces large buyers to move a bit more aggressively to acquire their preferred acquisition targets (buy now at $100M vs. wait a few years and pay several times more).  It also can help drive up prices for the best companies, providing more highly valued comps and giving entrepreneurs/CEO’s/investors the confidence to say no at lower prices.

My next post will be on what we learned about the “new model” for IPOs, both from the market at large as well as our experience helping 6 of our portfolio companies go public in 2010.

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